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Speculation, Avoid it Like The Plague

Author Kevin Sullivan

I’ve been writing books for 26 years.  I’m a nonfiction writer and my world has always been one of finding the truth where possible, and that drive for accuracy has been with me the whole time.  Getting to the truth should be the cardinal rule for all writers. But whenever the truth we’re seeking has not, or cannot be obtained, speculation will raise its head to take its place. And it is here where the nonfiction writer must be very careful.    

The definition of speculation is as follows: “The forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence.”  Notice that term firm evidence. Without firm evidence, we can speculate about anything, but it better be backed by a great deal of circumstantial evidence, or we shouldn’t be using it.  And in my writing career, using any speculation has been rare, and in the few instances where I have, it was based on strong circumstantial evidence. 

A perfect example of this was when I was writing about the late-night meeting between Lorraine Fargo and Kathy Parks only minutes before Kathy encountered Ted Bundy in the cafeteria of Oregon State University, which culminated in her murder.  I did not interview Lorraine for my book, The Bundy Murders, but I did have the official record that states she bumped into Kathy after leaving the library and was walking home (Bundy often hunted for victims at libraries, and I stated he may have been following her).  The record also mentioned that Kathy’s boyfriend received a letter from her postmarked May 7, 1974, so because she was abducted on May 6th, I also posited that perhaps she mailed it while she was out walking that evening.   Of course, it was nothing but speculation, but it was based (again) on circumstantial evidence. Well, a year after the book was published, Lorraine contacted me and confirmed that Kathy had dropped the letter in the mailbox in front of the cafeteria.  Lorraine also confirmed that a strange acting man had been bothering her at the library, and she thinks he followed out.  Of course, I believe that man was Ted Bundy. 

Another example of speculation that I “know must be true!” (and I write about this in my new book, The Enigma of Ted Bundy) is that Bundy would use the money of his victims after killing them. When I first posted this on my Facebook page, most people admitted they’d never thought about it, but that it made perfect sense. Even so, there were one or two detractors. However, if you look at how often Bundy was in need of money, and how often he stole the cash and credit cards of unsuspecting people, it’s easy to conclude he’d keep the money and spent it. So yes, it must be a fact. However, because it hasn’t been “confirmed” as was the case with Lorraine Fargo, we must leave it in the realm of speculation, even if we absolutely “know” it’s true.

Occasionally, folks will contact me, suggesting that something I’ve written in one of my books may not be exactly correct.  In each case it boiled down to speculation on their part and I always do what I can to straighten it out.  In one recent call from a friend, he suggested that something an interviewee told me a few years ago might not be exactly true, and he gave his reason for thinking so.  Well, I told him, I’d give the guy a call and do a little probing.  And after conferring with the person in question, he reiterated that what he’d told me in 2015 was correct, and gave additional information that put that speculation to rest once and for all.  I then passed this info to my friend.

So, the question becomes, was my friend, and all the others, wrong for bringing these things to my attention? No, absolutely not.  In fact, when searching for answers, we need to travel down such roads, for in doing so we can often end the speculations and discover the truth. 

Filed Under: Blog, Kevin Sullivan, True Crime Tagged With: Kevin Sullivan, Murder, nonfiction, Serial Killer, serial killer books, Serial Killers, Speculation, Ted Bundy, THE ENIGMA OF TED BUNDY, True Crime, True Crime Authors, true crime book, WildBlue Press, writing
April 13, 2021 By Kevin Sullivan 7 Comments

Comments

  1. Janel Broussard Wood says

    April 13, 2021 at 10:53 pm

    Attention to detail and exact wording should be the foundation of any non fiction body of work. Kevin Sullivan exemplifies this to the nth degree!

    Reply
    • Kevin Sullivan says

      April 13, 2021 at 10:59 pm

      Thanks for the good words, Janel! Much appreciated. 🙂

      Reply
  2. MJ Preston says

    April 13, 2021 at 10:59 pm

    Great blog. Ducks in a row, I’s dotted T’s crossed.

    Reply
    • Kevin Sullivan says

      April 14, 2021 at 10:14 am

      Thanks, MJ. 🙂

      Reply
  3. Carol Oas says

    January 30, 2022 at 7:16 pm

    Am curious about those that knew Louise Bundy and her blind eye regarding Ted’s disturbing behavior possibly even while he was growing up. Thought of contacting Sandi Holt with inquiries regarding her memories of how the Bundy’s parented at these times. Am speculating that it was not talked about and protecting image was the default approach. Do you have some info along these lines?

    Reply
    • Kevin Sullivan says

      January 31, 2022 at 7:13 pm

      I don’t know Sandi Holt, but I do know she makes several claims about Bundy in his youth that were never substantiated during the massive investigation conducted by various detectives and police departments. Also, she made some comment on one of the Bundy docs (I think it was Netflix), and she said something along the lines that Louise told her that her father Sam Cowell was Ted’s father-as if Louise would have said such a thing! No matter, Sam Cowell was ruled out through DNA recently, and that’s another Bundy myth busted.

      As to Bundy growing up with Johnnie and Louise Bundy, along with Bundy’s four siblings from that union, he likely appeared quite normal to them all. The only time Bundy ever appeared abnormal (to my knowledge) was when he was three or four years-old while he was living with his Louise and her family in Philadelphia until the age of four or five.

      I hope this helps.

      Reply
    • Kevin Sullivan says

      January 31, 2022 at 7:33 pm

      One more thing, Carol. Bundy’s two best friends as he was growing up were Warren Dodge and Terry Storwick. Both boys knew Ted struggled with not knowing his biological father, but as to strange actions, they apparently saw nothing unusual about him at all.

      Reply

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THE ENIGMA OF TED BUNDY by Kevin Sullivan

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Speculation, Avoid it Like The Plague